The Cost of Inaction for Mauritius 

By Kailash M. Nunkoo

Covid-19 and the Hormuz crisis have shown the importance of the critical themes of demography, export deficit, food and energy security, and impactful innovations. They determine the doom or prosperity of any country. Mauritius is therefore in danger.

Demography

While overpopulation is bad, depopulation is very dangerous and is an existential problem. The population of Mauritius has decreased by 0.21% and this is making the pension time bomb tick faster! There has been an outcry about the staggered extension of the eligibility age for the Basic Retirement Pension from 60 to 64 years, but nothing about the payment capacity. A declining population is already causing labour shortages, complexifying business operations and impacting quality of services everywhere. Talk about “ease of doing business” in Mauritius!

A declining population also means shrinking domestic markets for local industries. And it is also making it very difficult for young people to find partners and to get married – celibacy and delayed marriages are increasing! This is an infernal spiral that will doom Mauritius, as it is the case even with wealthy European countries. We should think in terms of emigration to attract people to Mauritius to reverse the demographic trend. In the 70’s, Zimbabwe recruited Mauritian school teachers and the UK recruited nurses. We do not need just young workers, drivers, and High Net Worth Individuals, but also ambitious people that would form part of the Mauritian middle class: teachers (there has been a chronic lack since many years), hospital personnel, engineers, entrepreneurs, scientists and farmers. This demographic trend is not recent. What had been planned to tackle it? 

Export Deficit

Based on 2024 data, our exports have covered only 35% of our imports! And how do we pay for the other 65%? Loans and debts! It is not surprising that the value of the rupee is rapidly depreciating… 

After the emergence of the offshore sector in the 1990’s, there have not been enough export-oriented industries to support the higher level of consumption. Productivity has stagnated or declined in most sectors, especially in the public sector, parastatal bodies and state companies, where efficiency, accountability and liability are thought to be alien concepts.

We have been hearing about the “Blue Economy” since decades, like we hear stories about sea mermaids! To reduce outflow of foreign currencies, the government increased taxes on all types of cars – a “low hanging fruit” measure! A big part of our foreign currencies is retained outside the country because all-inclusive packages are sold by foreign agencies of the hotel groups. The government should impose a limit on that – e.g. by limiting a maximum of, say, 25% of these sales through foreign agencies. This will bring back precious foreign currencies and boost local businesses. The government could set-up tax credits/penalties which the MRA would monitor and administer.

Food Security

Despite having the 20th largest Exclusive Economic Zone of the world, local artisanal and near-shore production represent only around 30% of our domestic fish needs. Mauritius is a net food importer with an overall food self-sufficiency ratio of approximately 25%. Everything is linked: rising living standards with a declining population creates labour shortages and disinterest for agricultural activity. This makes farming and agriculture even more difficult. There are so many abandoned plots of land, but who will take care of them? Available lands could be identified in different zones, conditioned, taken under government control, and grouped into different lots for leasing to courageous entrepreneurs, cooperatives, and even to new expats/immigrants for agricultural or photovoltaic electricity production projects. The same could be applied to the sea.

Energy Security

There was a dream to bring the share of renewable energy to 60% of electricity generation by 2030. It has declined to 18%! When looking beyond electricity to the full energy picture – including transport and industry – only 10% of Mauritius’ total energy consumption comes from modern renewable sources; a share that has been gradually decreasing over the past 20 years. All government buildings should be generating electricity from renewable energy sources. After increasing taxes/fees on all types of cars, it has dawned on the authorities that electric cars would better be charged using only renewable sources (which means investment in solar panels). Who will buy hybrid /electric cars unless the taxes are removed? Government owned and government-subsidized vehicles – the cherished duty-free cars – should ONLY be hybrid or electric, using only renewable energy!

Impactful Innovations

Only innovation brings progress. As of 2024, Mauritius was ranked 55th worldwide and filed 43 international patent applications through the Patent Cooperation Treaty, representing a 133% increase! This deserves the government’s support to convert the patents into commercial success internationally, and to have more patents applications locally.

In the 80’s and 90’s with innovative thinking and ambitious drive, the tourism, textile and offshore industries developed and flourished. It was the Mauritian Miracle! Since then, the rate of growth has dropped, but not people’s aspirations, and unfortunately, not the squandering of people’s trust and money also. 

The introduction of a new service resembling Uber, but limited to taxis, reveals the current limitations caused by political clientelism. A mobile application for finding the best bus routes launched by a young entrepreneur will also be limited by the inadequate service levels of the bus companies; a persistent problem. Yet, bus companies continue to have exclusivity on roads. Why? The bus routes should be liberalised! This will allow entrepreneurs to develop more efficient alternatives (e.g. with minibuses or executive/premium van/coach options). Currently, private vans are targeted by the NTA while non-conform (hot, stuffy, if not leaking rain, and with narrow seats inadequate for adults) and overcrowded (see how students are crammed) buses are protected. Who benefits from that?

And what impact will GPS systems have on the insufficient number of buses (also lacking drivers)? Precise information on delays will only lead to more stress! 

Who will marshal the imagination and energy needed to bring sweeping changes and profound improvements to catch up with progress? What has been sapping the vigour and effectiveness of decision makers for so long? Could it be aging, lack of exercise or eating habits?

Rendezvous in 2029 or 2034?

Progress of just 3% on any theme implies lots of improvements in many areas for prosperity! Whatever your socio-economic class, what do you think regression of 3% will mean? Where will you go? Dubai? We need bold, coherent thinking, and rapid action on new ideas to progress beyond the low hanging – and sometimes rotten – fruits. Between 2029 and 2034, Robotaxis in California and Uber in Mauritius could be fully operational, and we would be well on track towards prosperity. 

Do NOT imagine the worst!

Disclaimer from the author

AI (Copilot and Gemini) was used for research. Anyone with very different figures should publish them to improve the impact of the ideas.