“Geopolitical Realignment and Trade Uncertainty: What It Means for Africa”

Dr. Rebecca Harding, Trade Economist and Senior Fellow of the British Foreign Policy Group

Amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and a reordering of global trade priorities, African nations face a new era of uncertainty, but also of opportunity. In an in-depth interview during MCB Trade Week, Dr. Rebecca Harding, international economist and founder of Rebeccanomics, explored how protectionist policies in the U.S., global shifts in supply chains, and critical mineral demand are reshaping Africa’s trade landscape, and why regional integration may be the continent’s best defence.

Global trade is no longer governed by the steady, predictable rhythms of multilateralism. Instead, the rules are being rewritten by economic nationalism, geopolitical rivalry, and shifting technological priorities. At the centre of this disruption is the United States. Once a staunch supporter of globalisation, it is now actively working to unravel its core structures.

“This isn’t just a trade war,” said Dr. Rebecca Harding, trade economist and Senior Fellow of the British Foreign Policy Group. “It’s an economic war, and it’s serious.”

Dr. Harding, who was speaking during MCB Trade Week through video conferencing, addressed the implications of recent U.S. trade actions for African economies. These include tariff escalations, tech export controls, and a broader attempt to reduce dependence on global supply chains.

“Globalisation and the international rules-based order are now viewed in the U.S. as harmful to its national interest,” Dr Harding said. “With a $1.1 trillion trade deficit in goods, there’s a perception that the global trading system is unfair to America. Even small nations like Lesotho are being swept into this narrative.”

This recalibration has real consequences. Dr Harding reported that 36 executive orders related to trade and tariffs have been issued by the U.S. in 2025 alone, 25 of which directly altered tariff regimes, contributing to significant volatility in financial markets, exchange rates, and global trade flows.

“Uncertainty is now the new certainty,” she added. “It’s harder for companies to know where or how to invest, and that hits African countries particularly hard.”

While African exports to the U.S. account for only 1%-2% of total GDP, tariff increases – some as high as 10% on merchandise trade and 25% on automotive and steel – could lead to losses equivalent to 0.1%-0.2% of GDP. These losses, however, are not evenly distributed.

“Countries like Lesotho are too small to negotiate,” Harding noted. “Others, such as Angola, benefit from exemptions because of their oil and critical minerals. In Angola’s case, the effective tariff rate is closer to 2%.”

In this fragmented reality, smaller and less diversified economies may bear the brunt of external shocks, while resource-rich nations retain a degree of bargaining power, particularly in the context of the global rush for critical minerals.

“Africa holds the cards, but it must play them carefully.”

Africa’s Strategic Position in the Mineral Supply Chain

With mounting geopolitical competition over resources, Africa’s natural wealth is becoming increasingly strategic. “The U.S. wants to reduce its dependency on China for critical minerals. Africa has what the world wants,” Dr Harding said.

Countries like South Africa, Madagascar, Tanzania, and Malawi are already key players in the rare earths supply chain. According to Harding, Africa’s share of global critical mineral trade could reach 9%-10% within a decade, giving it significant leverage.

“There is mining capacity, technology, and experience in South Africa that the U.S. – and China – want to access. In this sense, Africa does have negotiating power,” she stated.

But this power comes with a need for strategic clarity. “There are already examples, such as in the DRC, where access to minerals is being linked to security guarantees. These resource-for-security deals may define future bilateral engagements.”

Turning Inward: Regional Trade as a Buffer

As external markets grow less predictable, intra-African trade is quietly gaining ground. “Intra-African trade increased from 13.6% in 2022 to 14.9% in 2023,” Dr Harding highlighted. “It’s still modest, but the growth trajectory matters.”

This trend offers a vital counterbalance to global trade disruption. “For as long as intra-African trade continues to accelerate, it gives the continent a chance to mitigate some of the external headwinds,” she said.

Dr Harding also pointed to growing foreign direct investment (FDI) – rising at around 7% annually – and climate finance, which reached USD 44 billion, as other positive indicators.

Yet, she warned that only 2% of Africa’s investment comes from within Africa itself. “This internal investment gap must be addressed if Africa is to build durable regional value chains,” she added.

Choosing Partners Wisely

With the U.S. and China competing for strategic influence, Harding urged African policymakers to be selective. “Both want something,” she said. “Africa holds the cards, but it must play them carefully.”

Particular attention, she argued, should be paid to innovation, inclusion, and sustainability, especially in sectors such as digital services, climate technologies, and youth and women-led enterprises.

“Africa is already moving away from traditional oil and gas dependence toward more diverse and sustainable industries,” she observed. “The societal and economic returns are strongest when investment also supports education, inclusion, and the environment.”

Conclusion: Redefining Africa’s Role in a Shifting World

Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, Dr Harding struck an optimistic tone. “Africa has always navigated instability,” she said. “Now, it has the chance to shape its own narrative – not just as a supplier of raw materials, but as a partner in building resilient, diversified global value chains.”

With strategic use of its resources, careful partner alignment, and investment in intra-continental trade, Africa can assert greater agency in a rapidly evolving global economy. The question, Dr Harding concluded, is not whether Africa is ready, but whether it will seize the moment.