“Navigating the Second Half of 2025: Are We in for a Bumpy Ride?”

Quinten Bertenshaw, Co-Founder and Executive Director of ETM Group

∙ “The pivot away from the dollar isn’t symbolic. It’s structural. Central banks are buying gold in record volumes.”

∙  “China is no longer Africa’s primary growth investor. The Gulf is stepping in—with capital and strategy.”

∙  “If oil stays below $65, U.S. shale production becomes unsustainable. Saudi Arabia is playing the long game.”

∙  “Liquidity is drying up. When the tide goes out, we find out which boats have weak keels.”

∙  “Trump is the biggest macro risk we see right now. The world has swung from far left to ultra right.”

∙  “The seeds for a viable alternative to the dollar are being sown—but don’t expect it within five years.”

At a financial markets forum hosted by the Mauritius Commercial Bank (MCB), Quinten Bertenshaw, Co-Founder and Executive Director of ETM Group, delivered a data-rich mid-year outlook. From U.S. fiscal fragility to China’s inward pivot and a potential global realignment away from the dollar, Bertenshaw unpacked the forces reshaping the second half of 2025. Despite a turbulent landscape, he argued, opportunities remain for those nimble enough to seize them.

As geopolitical tremors, macroeconomic fragilities, and policy unpredictability mount, financial markets are entering the second half of 2025 with more questions than answers. That was the sober message delivered by Quinten Bertenshaw, Co-Founder and Executive Director of ETM Group, at a high-level market intelligence session hosted by the Mauritius Commercial Bank (MCB) on 10 June at the Scala Conference Room, Caudan Arts Centre.

The event, titled “Navigating the Second Half of 2025: Are We in for a Bumpy Ride?” drew business leaders, institutional investors, and corporate treasurers seeking guidance on what lies ahead. Bertenshaw did not mince words: “We are entering a difficult phase—but within dislocation, there is always opportunity.”

His remarks, supported by proprietary data from ETM Analytics, spanned a wide spectrum—from U.S. fiscal risk and dollar liquidity cycles to global de-dollarisation, China’s structural slowdown, and the rise of Gulf states as capital providers in Africa.

Trump’s Second Term: The Global Market’s Principal Risk

Bertenshaw opened with the geopolitical variable that has most rattled markets in 2025: the return of Donald Trump to the White House. “Unfortunately, we can’t escape it. It’s Trump,” he said.

Charts presented showed a dramatic rise in U.S. tariffs—the most significant since the 1930s—reversing decades of liberal trade policy and accelerating a retreat from globalisation. “Trump is a transactional president,” Quentin Bertenshaw explained. “He looks at policy through the lens of dollars and cents, and he’s pursuing reindustrialisation at any cost.”

Yet, the viability of such ambitions is questionable. Manufacturing in the U.S. has shrunk to just 10% of GDP, and Trump aims to push it back up to 15%. But ageing technical expertise, a service-oriented economic structure, and global supply chain realities suggest this target may be aspirational at best. “Even if Trump wants to rebuild American industry, they may not have the human capital or infrastructure to execute it,” Quentin Bertenshaw warned.

Meanwhile, policy uncertainty in the U.S. has surged. Foreign executives and students face visa unpredictability, and domestic unrest—in particular in Hispanic-majority states—is flaring in response to Trump’s increasingly hardline internal security measures. “We are witnessing unprecedented use of federal force to quell dissent,” Quentin Bertenshaw added.

Debt Dynamics: The Coming Refinancing Test

Among the more urgent risks flagged was the state of U.S. fiscal policy. “Interest costs on U.S. debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion annually—more than total military expenditure,” Bertenshaw noted.

A “heavily front-loaded rollover profile” means the U.S. Treasury must refinance vast swathes of debt beginning March 2025. While current yields price in a degree of fiscal risk, any further deterioration in deficit management could send borrowing costs spiralling.

Notably, fiscal hawk Elon Musk’s appointment to lead cost-cutting efforts has been undermined by Trump’s subsequent spending announcements, including a multi-billion-dollar industrial investment package. “This contradiction—cutting Medicaid on one hand, while adding $200 billion in new outlays—sends conflicting signals to markets,” Quentin Bertenshaw said.

Bond market indicators, such as the 2-year vs. 10-year spread, suggest steepening yield curves across major developed economies. “This is a classic sign of fiscal stress. It implies long-term doubts about government solvency even as central banks try to anchor the short end.”

“The relationship between the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields has broken down. U.S. exceptionalism is under pressure.”

Dollar Liquidity and Structural Fractures

ETM’s proprietary five-year annualised U.S. money supply chart—described as a “winter period indicator”—shows dollar liquidity contracting sharply. “This doesn’t predict a crisis,” Bertenshaw clarified. “But when liquidity dries up, market fractures appear. Think of it like the tide receding—you find out which boats have weak keels.”

For dollarised emerging markets, particularly in Africa, the implications are significant. Inadequate dollar flows may undermine FX access, disrupt commodity cycles, and weaken debt sustainability.

Central banks have wound down quantitative easing, but Bertenshaw warned that any fiscal slippage could prompt a reversal. “QT is largely done. But if debt markets lose confidence, central banks may be forced to intervene again.”

The De-Dollarisation Imperative

A consistent theme throughout the presentation was the waning dominance of the U.S. dollar. “The dislocation in the relationship between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields indicates the end of U.S. exceptionalism,” he said.

China’s sale of U.S. Treasuries and accumulation of gold since 2012 points to a deliberate diversification strategy. “This is not symbolic. It’s structural. Central banks—particularly from BRICS nations—are systematically reducing dollar exposure.”

Though the creation of a BRICS currency is still distant, Quentin Bertenshaw argued that its foundations are being laid. “To decouple from the dollar in five years is impossible. But within 10 to 20 years, we will likely see a credible alternative reserve framework.”

The BRICS gold accumulation—led by China, India, Kazakhstan, and Turkey—suggests growing demand for hard assets over fiat reserves. “Over the last three years, 95% of mined gold was purchased by central banks. That is extraordinary,” he added.

China’s Domestic Dilemma and Africa’s Investment Pivot

While China remains a dominant economic actor, its internal slowdown is shaping global flows. Persistent deflation and a collapsing property sector have undermined consumer demand. “China is becoming inward-looking. They are investing in themselves to re-ignite growth, not exporting capital as they once did.”

Consequently, Africa is seeing a new class of investor: the Gulf states. ETM estimates that nearly $200 billion has flowed into African infrastructure, logistics, telecoms, and agriculture from the UAE and Saudi Arabia in the past five years. “They are ahead of the curve. They are not just injecting capital—they are deploying strategy,” Quentin Bertenshaw remarked.

He cited the example of DP World’s infrastructure commitments and Saudi investments in food security. “These investors are buying long-term influence, and their approach is far more sophisticated than what we saw under previous FDI waves.”

Oil Strategy, Proxy Tensions, and Fiscal Realities

Oil markets could be a flashpoint in the months ahead. Saudi Arabia has increased production by 440,000 barrels/day for three consecutive months, bringing output close to pre-cut levels. “This could be part of a geopolitical strategy to undercut U.S. shale, which becomes uneconomic below $65/barrel,” Quentin Bertenshaw said.

He cautioned that if oil prices remain suppressed, producers in West Africa—especially Nigeria—could face fiscal strain, with breakevens often above $50/barrel.

In parallel, fiscal stress is rising across all country categories: advanced, emerging, and low-income. “Trimming deficits often means slower growth in the short term. The accelerator effect takes time to materialise,” Bertenshaw noted, referencing Greece’s post-austerity rebound as a historical analogue.

A Tactical Pause, Not a Full Retreat

Quentin Bertenshaw concluded on a pragmatic, if restrained, note. “Most market actors will adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach over the next six months—particularly as we observe how Trump’s policy engine unfolds.”

Yet he rejected any notion of paralysis. “Within every dislocation, there is a pocket of value. Importers can benefit from a weaker dollar. Exporters should be exploring hedging strategies. The opportunities are there—just not where they used to be.”

His final analogy, quoting Warren Buffett, captured the mood: “Buy when there’s blood on the streets.”